Running Back & Quarterback Rushing Redzone Conversion Rates

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Scoring touchdowns is good. Just inherently, scoring touchdowns is a good thing. I certainly don’t believe in the concept of “nose for the endzone”, at least just from watching players, but there are players who are inherently skilled at scoring. For fantasy football purposes, consistency by the way of yards is pretty nice, but finding players who are adept at scoring, by usage or by skill is valuable. For wide receivers, it’s easier to identify physical traits that aid in helping score touchdowns (height, large hands), the same is not so for running backs. The table that follows is all players with 15 or more rushing attempts inside in the 10 yard line and those players conversion percentages. (touchdowns/attempts). Data provided by Pro Football Reference.

Player Att Yds Y/A TD RZ TD Rate
Mikel Leshoure 16 36 2.25 9 56.25%
Tim Tebow 18 46 2.56 9 50.00%
Michael Vick 20 47 2.35 9 45.00%
John Kuhn 21 30 1.43 9 42.86%
Brandon Jacobs 33 63 1.91 14 42.42%
Alfred Morris 24 66 2.75 10 41.67%
Mike Tolbert 61 106 1.74 25 40.98%
Cam Newton 44 88 2 17 38.64%
Chris Wells 39 68 1.74 15 38.46%
Tom Brady 22 36 1.64 8 36.36%
Rashard Mendenhall 56 76 1.36 20 35.71%
Adrian Peterson 75 146 1.95 26 34.67%
Knowshon Moreno 26 41 1.58 9 34.62%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 73 113 1.55 25 34.25%
Ray Rice 69 143 2.07 23 33.33%
Michael Bush 57 86 1.51 19 33.33%
Trent Richardson 21 29 1.38 7 33.33%
Anthony Dixon 19 36 1.89 6 31.58%
Fred Jackson 32 56 1.75 10 31.25%
Ben Tate 16 33 2.06 5 31.25%
Ahmad Bradshaw 60 163 2.72 18 30.00%
Aaron Rodgers 24 69 2.88 7 29.17%
Peyton Hillis 42 95 2.26 12 28.57%
Arian Foster 117 229 1.96 33 28.21%
LaDainian Tomlinson 18 40 2.22 5 27.78%
Marshawn Lynch 66 70 1.06 18 27.27%
Ryan Mathews 22 75 3.41 6 27.27%
LaRod Stephens-Howling 15 27 1.8 4 26.67%
Chester Taylor 15 18 1.2 4 26.67%
Shonn Greene 53 113 2.13 14 26.42%
Ronnie Brown 19 15 0.79 5 26.32%
Jonathan Stewart 23 23 1 6 26.09%
Jackie Battle 23 21 0.91 6 26.09%
Pierre Thomas 27 86 3.19 7 25.93%
Marion Barber 31 38 1.23 8 25.81%
Michael Turner 109 147 1.35 28 25.69%
Stevan Ridley 43 78 1.81 11 25.58%
LeSean McCoy 64 97 1.52 16 25.00%
C.J. Spiller 16 53 3.31 4 25.00%
Jahvid Best 16 25 1.56 4 25.00%
LeGarrette Blount 25 33 1.32 6 24.00%
Darren McFadden 34 89 2.62 8 23.53%
Tim Hightower 17 33 1.94 4 23.53%
Chris Ivory 17 25 1.47 4 23.53%
Steven Jackson 47 76 1.62 11 23.40%
Frank Gore 66 100 1.52 15 22.73%
Chris Johnson 45 48 1.07 10 22.22%
Danny Woodhead 27 75 2.78 6 22.22%
DeMarco Murray 18 16 0.89 4 22.22%
Joseph Addai 19 51 2.68 4 21.05%
Willis McGahee 43 71 1.65 9 20.93%
Doug Martin 29 52 1.79 6 20.69%
Maurice Jones-Drew 54 107 1.98 11 20.37%
Jamaal Charles 20 58 2.9 4 20.00%
Keiland Williams 15 29 1.93 3 20.00%
Derrick Ward 15 28 1.87 3 20.00%
Josh Freeman 15 5 0.33 3 20.00%
Cedric Benson 62 92 1.48 11 17.74%
Mark Ingram 23 35 1.52 4 17.39%
Isaac Redman 24 41 1.71 4 16.67%
Reggie Bush 24 36 1.5 4 16.67%
Ryan Torain 19 14 0.74 3 15.79%
Matt Forte 47 80 1.7 7 14.89%
Daniel Thomas 27 39 1.44 4 14.81%
Thomas Jones 35 61 1.74 5 14.29%
Felix Jones 29 75 2.59 4 13.79%
DeAngelo Williams 23 51 2.22 3 13.04%
Donald Brown 25 62 2.48 3 12.00%
Tashard Choice 25 30 1.2 3 12.00%
Roy Helu 15 27 1.8 1 6.67%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 17 5 0.29 1 5.88%
  • Given the context of the Lions backfield, it has to be a little worrisome to the Reggie Bush supporters that Mikel Leshoure owns the highest TD rate of any player at 56.25 and Reggie Bush is never the bottom at 16% with only 4 touchdowns on 24 looks.
  • Arian Foster, with a mammoth amount of rushes inside in the 10 yard line still converted 28% of his looks into touchdowns. Defenses knew what was coming and Foster was still able to consistently score.
  • Steven Jackson has been annoited as an extreme value for fantasy football, due to the sheer number of touchdown opportunities he will be given. As a member of the Rams over the last 3 years, Jackson converted 23.4% of his looks, and the ancient Micheal Turner converted 25.69% of his looks the last 3 years on the Falcons. The sheer discrepancy in inside-the-10 touches moves the fantasy indicators up for Jackson. Over the last 3 seasons, Turner has received 62 more carries than Jackson. On average, Turner received 36 carries in side the 10. If Jackson were to receive the same looks and convert his 3 year average, that would set a baseline of 8 touchdowns. However, given the awfulness of the offensive line play and the offense in general, I think S-Jax’s conversion rate spikes.
  • His Godliness Tim Tebow converted 50% of his 10 yard touches, and the exact opposite of Tebow (Mike Vick) converted 45%, which leads me to believe that rushing quarterbacks have much wider lanes in which to score. If Tebow lined up a running back, that percentage would shrink.
  • Cam Newton: 44 attempts, 17 touchdowns. Just another reminder that he is the Panthers goalline back.

About Davis Mattek

20 Year old student of English at Kansas State University. Writer for Sports Wunderkind, The Fake Football and Hockey, and various other media outlets. Fan of the Cowboys, Thunder, Avalanche and Royals

About Davis Mattek

20 Year old student of English at Kansas State University. Writer for Sports Wunderkind, The Fake Football and Hockey, and various other media outlets. Fan of the Cowboys, Thunder, Avalanche and Royals
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  • JT Sports Guy

    I’m taking a long look at Leshore this offseason. He is going to get opportunities. Even with the signing of Reggie Bush, I think Detroit gives it to Leshore more and more as the season goes on. He is certainly going to get the red zone looks – and if Bush has any injury issues, look for Leshore to be a solid RB2 on any fantasy football lineup. More Fantasy Football

    • Davis Mattek

      RB2 might be a little optimistic.