Predraft, Jordan Reed was my absolute favorite tight end prospect. I thought he had the highest ceiling out of the entire class and his athleticism would play anywhere. The Washington Redskins have turned Jordan Reed from a dynasty stash to a potential fantasy starter immediately. The way that he is able to slip blocks and run in the open field make him perfect for the Redskins offense. His long speed will make him more of a threat than Fred Davis or Logan Paulsen and while Robert Griffin is coming back from knee surgery, I fully expect Reed to be his favorite target on intermediate routes. Reed’s 40 time is superior to de facto 2012 starter Logan Paulsen by a full tenth of a second. Reed and Davis have almost identical 40 times, 4.68 to 4.72, but as Davis is recovering from a very traumatic injury, it isn’t hard to believe that Reed is now faster.
Here is a look at all 3 tight end’s Market Share of Yards and Touchdowns.
Paulsen is clearly inferior to Davis and Reed as an athlete. What is interesting is that Reed was much better as a freshmen and sophomore. While Davis eventually caught up to be Reed’s equal, the difference in quarterback play could not have been more dramatic. These metrics would seem to infer that Davis and Reed are comparable prospects, but with Davis coming back from injury, it would seem to dictate that Reed is going to take the starting job.
In 2012, The Redskins targeted a tight end 87 times. In 2011, that number jumped to 124. The injuries to Davis and RG3 as well as the general state of flux of the offense caused those numbers to go down. However, historically, the Shanahan’s have loved to use the tight end. Reed’s ability to play in-line (he is a really, really bad blocker, but he can learn), in motion, in the slot, and at the X is going to cause his usage rates to go up. His pattern of usage early on will be something to watch. If the Redskins get him the ball in the open field and while he is on the move, his fantasy ceiling is quite high. I am going to subscribe to C.D Carter’s tight end streaming theory in 2013, and there is good chance that Reed is continual starter for many fantasy teams in 2013.